Poor harvests, high food prices and pressure from refugees and returning migrants are expected to keep several regions of Burundi in food insecurity through at least September 2026, according to a new food security outlook released in late February.
The report from Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) says households in the Eastern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands and Imbo Plains are likely to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) conditions in the coming months as they cope with below-average agricultural production and limited purchasing power.
“Below-average Season A harvests due to October–December 2025 rainfall delays and deficits, coupled with high food prices, are driving food insecurity,” the report said.
The situation is being compounded by regional pressures and market disruptions. According to the analysis, eastern Burundi is hosting large numbers of refugees and returning Burundians, while continued border closures with both Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda are restricting trade flows and income opportunities in the west and north.
“As a result, households remain highly market-dependent amid low purchasing power,” FEWS NET said.
Lean season pressure expected
Food access is also expected to tighten in Burundi’s Eastern Dry Plateaus during the April–May lean season, the period before the next harvest when household food supplies are typically lowest.
Analysts say the area will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes during that time due to early depletion of food stocks after localized poor harvests.
“Rising food prices, limited agricultural labor income, and pressure from refugees hosted in the area will drive constrained food access during this short lean period,” the report said.
Harvest may improve supply but not fully ease stress
Season B production, with harvests beginning in May, is expected to be near average overall. However, food insecurity is projected to continue in the Eastern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands and Imbo Plains from June through September.
Many households will still struggle to meet food needs even after the harvest because crops will partly be used to repay debts incurred for food purchases and farming inputs earlier in the year.
“Most households will need to allocate a portion of their crop to repay debts incurred for food and agricultural inputs,” FEWS NET said, adding that high food prices and localized production shortfalls will continue to limit access to food.
Hundreds of thousands may need aid
FEWS NET estimates that 750,000 to 999,999 people in Burundi will require urgent humanitarian assistance, with the highest needs expected between April and May.
The report identifies the most vulnerable groups as refugees, returning migrants who have already used up their assistance packages, people displaced by flooding, and poor households whose harvests were reduced by rainfall deficits during the 2026 Season A growing period.
“The most vulnerable groups include refugees, returnees who have exhausted their assistance package, flood-displaced populations, and poor households where rainfall deficits resulted in below-average 2026 Season A production and subsequent low food stocks,” the report said.
The analysis is based on information available as of Feb. 27, 2026.
