Burundi is among the areas of the Greater Horn of Africa expected to receive wetter-than-normal rainfall during the October-December season, according to a regional climate outlook that could increase the risk of flooding and landslides in vulnerable parts of the country.
The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre, known as ICPAC, said there is a high likelihood that seasonal rainfall will exceed 400 millimeters in parts of Burundi, as well as in the Lake Victoria Basin, western Rwanda and western Tanzania.
The outlook was released after the 74th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum, held Aug. 17-18, 2026, bringing together meteorological services, climate experts and government representatives from across the region.
October through December is an important rainfall period for Burundi. ICPAC estimates that the season contributes up to 40% of annual rainfall in parts of Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda.
The center said El Niño has developed in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen during the remainder of 2026. The Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected to be in a positive phase.
“These conditions normally lead to enhanced rainfall over the region during the OND season,” ICPAC said.
Flood and landslide risk
The forecast comes after Burundi experienced severe flooding and landslides during the 2023-24 rainy season.
World Bank assessments found that torrential rains, flooding and landslides affected more than 237,000 people between September 2023 and mid-April 2024. More than 42,000 people were displaced, while 19,250 houses were destroyed or damaged. More than 200 classrooms were also destroyed or flooded, and roads, water systems and health facilities were damaged.
The World Bank has described Burundi as highly vulnerable to floods and landslides, citing the country’s mountainous terrain, exposure to intense rainfall and dependence on rain-fed agriculture.
Lake Tanganyika also reached unusually high levels during the 2024 flooding. According to the World Bank, the lake level rose from 776.72 meters in mid-March 2024 to 777.12 meters by mid-April, exceeding the previous peak recorded in 1964-65.
The experience has left several parts of the country particularly exposed to renewed flooding and landslides during periods of intense rainfall.
Agriculture faces mixed outlook
The wetter forecast could also benefit Burundi’s agricultural sector, which relies heavily on rainfall.
ICPAC said above-normal rainfall across the region could improve water availability and soil moisture and support agricultural activities.
But excessive or concentrated rainfall can damage crops, erode farmland and disrupt agricultural production.
The World Bank says about 85% of Burundi’s workforce is employed in agriculture, while much of the sector depends on rain-fed production.
The country’s vulnerability to soil erosion is also significant. The World Bank has estimated that Burundi loses almost 38 million tons of soil each year, with erosion affecting agricultural productivity and contributing to land degradation.
El Niño and previous seasons
ICPAC identified 1997 and 2023 as analogue years for the current climate conditions because wetter-than-normal conditions were observed across much of the region during their October-December seasons.
The center cautioned that analogue years provide context for preparedness and planning, while the 2026 seasonal forecast remains the primary reference for decision-making.
ICPAC also expects warmer-than-average temperatures across most of the Greater Horn, with the highest probabilities in eastern Kenya, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and much of Somalia.
The regional forecast does not determine rainfall at individual locations or predict specific flood events. ICPAC said national meteorological and hydrological services will provide more detailed country-specific forecasts and advisories.
“ICPAC will continue to provide regular regional updates, while NMHSs will issue detailed country-specific forecasts and advisories,” the center said.
It also urged stakeholders to follow updated weekly, sub-seasonal and monthly forecasts as the October-December season approaches.
Burundi’s 2024 floods caused an estimated $55 million in direct damages, according to a World Bank assessment, and affected housing, agricultural land, roads and other infrastructure.
