Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to strengthen to 4.3% in 2026, but the expansion is still not generating enough jobs or reducing extreme poverty at the pace needed, the World Bank said Tuesday.
The bank raised its 2026 growth forecast by 0.3 percentage points from its April projection, citing stronger domestic demand, improved macroeconomic resilience and investment linked to the global energy transition and digital technologies.
Growth is forecast to rise from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.3% this year. Forecasts have been upgraded for nearly three-quarters of countries in the region, including Angola, Ethiopia, Nigeria and Zambia.
But the World Bank said growth remains insufficient to substantially reduce extreme poverty or create enough jobs for the region’s rapidly expanding labor force.
“Growth in the region remains resilient,” Andrew Dabalen, the World Bank’s chief economist for Africa, said in the latest Africa Economic Update. “The next challenge is turning growth into more jobs and better opportunities.”
Burundi illustrates some of the pressures facing low-income economies in the region.
The World Bank estimates that Burundi’s economy grew 4.2% in 2025 and projects growth of 4.2% in 2026. Real GDP per capita grew 1.8% in 2025, according to World Bank data. About 63% of Burundi’s population lived below the international poverty line of $2.15 a day in 2024, the bank says.
Most Burundians also remain employed in agriculture, a sector characterized by low productivity and limited formal employment opportunities. The World Bank estimates that about 85% of the country’s population is employed in agriculture.
The regional outlook also comes with renewed inflation risks. The World Bank expects the median inflation rate in Sub-Saharan Africa to rise from 3.7% in 2025 to 5.5% in 2026, as higher global prices for fuel, fertilizer and food reverse some recent improvements.
Burundi has seen inflation fall from last year’s highs. Average inflation reached 34% in 2025 and peaked at 45.5% in April, according to the World Bank. It had fallen to 8.4% in August 2026, although fuel shortages, higher global energy prices and weather-related risks continue to threaten price stability.
The International Monetary Fund has a more cautious forecast for Burundi, projecting economic growth of 3.9% in 2026 and average inflation of 14.5%.
Across the region, public debt has broadly stabilized at about 57% of gross domestic product, the World Bank said. However, high debt-service costs are limiting government spending on health, education and infrastructure.
Declining development assistance is adding to the pressure, leaving governments increasingly reliant on domestic revenue mobilization, local capital markets and other sources of financing.
The World Bank also warned that further geopolitical tensions could push up commodity prices and inflation, while climate-related shocks, including the potential effects of an El Niño event, could disrupt agricultural production and worsen food insecurity.
The report’s special focus is artificial intelligence, which the bank says could increase productivity and support job creation if African countries invest in reliable electricity, affordable internet access, digital skills, data and computing infrastructure.
Most countries remain at an early stage of AI adoption, with activity concentrated in economies including Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa.
The bank said affordable, locally adapted AI applications in agriculture, education, health, finance, logistics and public administration could provide more immediate opportunities than frontier AI systems.
For the region’s economies, however, the immediate challenge remains converting economic expansion into productive employment and higher incomes while managing inflation, debt and declining external financing.
