Lusaka, Zambia — Eight member states of the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) are expected to record sharp declines in trade volumes this year following new reciprocal tariffs imposed by the United States, the regional bloc said Friday.
The countries most affected include the Democratic Republic of Congo (11% decline), Libya (31%), Madagascar (47%), Malawi (17%), Mauritius (40%), Tunisia (28%), Zambia (17%) and Zimbabwe (18%), according to a policy brief by COMESA’s Division of Trade and Customs.
Although the U.S. is not among COMESA’s top trading partners, the tariffs are expected to trigger supply and demand shocks that will ripple across the region, the brief said. Higher production costs and consumer prices in the U.S. could shrink its economy and further weaken demand for African exports such as Kenyan textiles and Zambian copper.
“AGOA was meant to expand market access for African countries, but these new tariffs represent a clear reversal of that vision,” Dr. Christopher Onyango, COMESA’s director of trade and customs, said, referring to the African Growth and Opportunity Act. The U.S. program, enacted in 2000, has allowed dozens of African nations to export goods duty-free.
Currently, 35 African countries benefit from AGOA, including 10 COMESA members. But uncertainty over the program’s future and Washington’s new tariff regime have raised fears of production cuts and widespread job losses in African economies.
The policy brief also warned that retaliatory measures from major trade partners such as China and the European Union could worsen the impact. The EU and China are COMESA’s largest markets, accounting for up to 40% of exports and 13% of imports in recent years. A global tariff standoff could shave 0.43% off worldwide GDP, further depressing demand for African exports.
To mitigate the fallout, COMESA recommended that member states pursue stronger trade agreements with partners including China, the EU, Japan, India and Middle Eastern nations. It also called on the African Union to engage the U.S. to safeguard the rules-based trading system and urged deeper regional integration to reduce dependence on external markets.
“Strengthening intra-African trade and building regional value chains will be crucial to weathering this storm,” the brief said, noting that investment in infrastructure and financing from African institutions will be key to long-term resilience.
COMESA said it remains committed to defending the interests of its 21 member states and advancing initiatives to strengthen economic stability across the region.
