As a former legislator and an economist who has spent decades navigating the complexities of regional integration and Fast-moving Consumer Goods (EMCG) supply chains, I have learned one indelible truth: what we cannot achieve through peaceful dialogue is rarely, if ever, secured through missiles and drones or the barrel of a gun.
The escalating conflict between Iran and Usa-Israel is not merely a Middle Eastern tragedy; it is a global economic contagion that threatens to undo years of fragile economic recovery in Africa.
The geographical heart of this conflict sits upon the world’s most sensitive economic arteries. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are not just lines on a map; they are the lifelines of global commerce. In early March 2026, we are already seeing the devastating impact of this volatility.
With nearly 20 per cent of global oil and 20 per cent of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) transiting the Strait of Hormuz, any prolonged disruption sends immediate shock waves through the global markets.
Recent data indicates that following the escalation on February 28, Brent crude surged past US$90 (Ksh11,631) per barrel; a 25 per cent jump in a single week. For an economist, these aren’t just numbers; they represent a “war premium” that every consumer, from Nairobi to Lagos, will pay at the pump and the grocery store.
Africa is structurally exposed to this war. Our reliance on Middle Eastern hubs for logistics means that a disruption at the Jebel Ali port in Dubai, which recently suspended operations due to aerial interceptions, is felt as a supply shortage in East Africa. The continent is likely to suffer three consequences of this war; Trade Disruptions resulting from rerouting ships around the Cape of Good Hope adds 10 to 14 days to the transit times for both exports and imports.
This isn’t just a delay; it is a massive inflationary hit as “Emergency Conflict Surcharges” (ECS) begin to appear on shipping manifests.
Secondly net energy importers like Kenya and most of the EAC countries risk facing widening trade deficits. In Nigeria, war-risk insurance for shipping has spiked, a cost directly passed to the citizen.
Additionally, the war puts all Logistics Under Fire. Approximately 25 per cent of China-Europe air cargo normally transits Middle Eastern hubs.
The loss of these hubs creates structural gaps in the global network, stalling the machinery of African trade.
With all these eminent effects on our economies, we cannot afford the luxury of being passive observers.
The African Union (AU) must move beyond “grave concern.” It should instead call for the immediate convening of an Extraordinary Summit of the AU to address this crisis.
While Africa must maintain a stance of principled neutrality, it should at the same time realise that neutrality does not mean silence. As a continent that has suffered of wars, we have a unique moral and economic mandate to call upon the players in the conflict and lead a mediation process aimed at ending this war.
We understand the cost of conflict; we know that war only yields human suffering and the erosion of developmental gains.
Our leadership in the AU must prioritise the protection of our supply chains. By initiating a formal mediation process, Africa can champion the peaceful talks that are the only sustainable path forward. We are not just protecting a region, but the global stability upon which our own integration and prosperity depend.
The global economy is an intricate web.
When one strand is pulled in the Middle East, the entire structure vibrates in Africa. We must act now, not just for the sake of international diplomacy, but to safeguard the livelihoods of 1.4 billion Africans who should not have to pay the price for a war they did not start.
DR ABDIKADIR ADEN is a former MemÂber of ParÂliaÂment (Kenya) and EALA, EcoÂnomÂist, and PHD in LeadÂerÂship and Regional IntegÂraÂtion; email: abdikadir25@gmail.com
