Burundi’s exports surged sharply in the final quarter of 2025, but new trade data suggests the country’s growing presence on international markets remains heavily dependent on raw commodities rather than industrial production, raising questions about the pace of economic transformation.
Figures published by the National Statistic Institute of Burundi (INSBU) show export values increased by 50.4 percent year-on-year and 36.6 percent compared to the previous quarter, driven primarily by strong performance in primary products, while manufactured goods recorded weaker momentum and declined on a quarterly basis.
“The evolution is mainly linked to primary products, which expanded strongly, while manufactured products presented more limited growth and a decline on a quarterly basis,” the report states.
The statistics show Burundi’s export structure remains concentrated around primary commodities, which account for the overwhelming share of export weightings in the trade basket. Primary products represent more than 72 percent of export weighting, significantly outweighing manufactured goods. This suggests that while export earnings are growing, value addition within the domestic economy remains constrained.
Trade analysts often view heavy reliance on raw commodities as a double-edged sword: it can generate rapid export gains during favorable market conditions but exposes economies to price volatility and fluctuations in global demand.
INSBU acknowledged the stronger export performance but noted the imbalance between sectors. “The export performance was more sustained than imports, notably in terms of value and volume, reflecting stronger presence of national products on foreign markets, particularly primary products,” the report said.
Export volumes also expanded significantly, rising by 22 percent annually and 18.8 percent quarter-on-quarter, largely due to increased shipments of primary products, while manufactured exports saw declining volumes that partly limited overall growth.
The latest figures arrive as Burundi pursues its long-term development agenda aimed at transforming the economy through industrialization and value addition. However, the data indicates that export growth remains tied largely to products with limited processing, underscoring the challenge policymakers face in shifting from commodity dependence toward manufacturing-led expansion.
The report concluded that Burundi’s overall trade position improved during the quarter, helped by stronger export prices and improved terms of trade, but the composition of exports may increasingly shape whether those gains are sustainable over the long term.
