Burundi’s economy is projected to grow by 4.4 percent in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), signalling a steady recovery from 3.5 percent growth in 2024. While the pace remains moderate compared to some East African peers, the IMF expects Burundi to maintain stable momentum through 2026.
The projections are part of the IMF’s Africa Regional Economic Outlook (AFRREO) – October 2025, which compiles macroeconomic data from 45 Sub-Saharan African countries. The Fund forecasts Burundi’s growth to ease slightly to 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by agriculture, infrastructure investments, and public spending.
“Sub-Saharan Africa’s recovery remains resilient despite global economic headwinds, supported by domestic reforms and improved agricultural output,” the IMF report stated.
Burundi’s 4.4 percent forecast is slightly below growth projections for Kenya (4.8%), Tanzania (6.0%), and Uganda (6.4%), while Rwanda continues to lead the region with a strong 7.1 percent expansion in 2025.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, economic growth is expected to average 4.1 percent in 2025, rising modestly to 4.4 percent in 2026 as inflation eases and investment strengthens.
Neighboring Democratic Republic of Congo is forecast to grow by 5.3 percent, while South Sudan, recovering from a sharp contraction in 2024, is expected to rebound by 24.3 percent next year a reflection of post-conflict recovery rather than sustained economic performance.
Burundi’s Economic Outlook
Economic analysts say the IMF’s forecast reflects cautious optimism as Burundi continues to navigate inflationary pressures, currency shortages, and limited export diversification.
“The IMF projections indicate cautious optimism,” said a regional economist in Bujumbura. “Burundi’s recovery depends on sustained macroeconomic stability, improved trade ties within the East African Community, and continued support for agricultural productivity.”
The IMF emphasized that while the regional outlook remains positive, fiscal constraints, global price fluctuations, and data quality gaps could pose challenges to long-term growth.
“The outlook for the region remains positive, but policy consistency and investment in data quality will be key to maintaining growth momentum,” the IMF noted.
The IMF projects Sub-Saharan Africa’s overall economy to grow 4.1 percent in 2025 and 4.4 percent in 2026, reflecting gradual stabilization after years of external shocks and debt pressures. However, it cautions that many countries still face structural vulnerabilities that could slow progress if not addressed through sustained reforms.
