The escalating conflict in the Middle East could increase the cost of fuel, food and agricultural inputs in Burundi, adding fresh pressure on households and businesses as the country continues to grapple with inflation and a heavy reliance on imports, according to a new World Bank report.
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report released Wednesday, the World Bank said the conflict has disrupted global energy markets and is expected to slow global economic growth to its weakest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic, while pushing up oil, fertilizer and food prices worldwide.
The Washington-based lender forecasts global growth will slow to 2.5% in 2026 from 2.9% in 2025, citing higher energy prices, rising inflation and increased borrowing costs linked to the conflict.
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted energy markets, with Brent crude oil prices projected to average $94 a barrel in 2026, 36% above 2025 levels, assuming the worst disruptions abate in July,” the report said.
For Burundi, which imports all of its petroleum products and relies heavily on imported fertilizers and other agricultural inputs, higher global commodity prices could translate into increased transport costs, more expensive food production and renewed inflationary pressures.
The World Bank warned that fertilizer prices are expected to rise significantly this year, creating knock-on effects for food prices. Such increases are likely to be felt acutely in East Africa, where agriculture remains a major employer and food accounts for a large share of household spending.
Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic growth is projected to slow to 4.0% in 2026 from earlier expectations, with the World Bank noting that one of the region’s biggest challenges will be inflation driven by higher food prices and fertilizer shortages.
“The conflict has taken a toll on global activity, but every crisis also brings an opportunity,” said Ayhan Kose, the World Bank Group’s deputy chief economist and director of the Prospects Group. “This moment should be used to strengthen policy frameworks, invest in infrastructure, accelerate business-enabling reforms, and mobilize private capital to support job creation at scale.”
The warning comes as Burundi continues efforts to stabilize prices and improve agricultural productivity amid persistent foreign exchange shortages and rising import costs. Fuel availability and pricing have remained a sensitive issue in the country in recent years, with disruptions in global supply chains often quickly filtering through to transport and consumer markets.
Economists say the latest shock highlights the vulnerability of landlocked economies such as Burundi to geopolitical events far beyond their borders. Higher oil prices typically increase the cost of transporting goods through regional corridors from ports in Tanzania and Kenya, while rising fertilizer prices can raise production costs for farmers and ultimately food prices for consumers.
The World Bank estimates global inflation will rise to 4.0% in 2026 from 3.3% in 2025 as energy and commodity prices increase. It cautioned that conditions could worsen if disruptions to energy supplies become more severe.
Under a downside scenario involving prolonged energy disruptions and financial stress, global economic growth could slow sharply to 1.3% this year while inflation rises further to 4.4%, the report said.
World Bank Group President Ajay Banga said developing countries face the difficult task of responding to immediate economic pressures without sacrificing long-term growth.
“Developing countries have faced a series of challenges over the last decade,” Banga said. “The impact differs by country, but the basic test is the same: protect people and preserve stability today, without giving up on growth and jobs tomorrow.”
The World Bank said it is preparing up to $100 billion in financing over the next 15 months to help developing countries cope with the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict if conditions deteriorate further.
For Burundi and many other African economies, the report suggests the most immediate concern may not be the conflict itself, but its impact on the prices of fuel, fertiliser and food costs that are ultimately borne by consumers, farmers and businesses.
