Burundi’s government spent roughly 260.5 billion francs more than it collected in domestic revenue in the period covered by INSBU’s latest quarterly bulletin, according to the National Institute of Statistics of Burundi (INSBU) — a gap that grants covered almost entirely, but one that underscores how dependent the country’s finances remain on outside money even as it tightens its belt.
The INSBU numbers put revenue excluding grants at 894.2 billion francs, against 633 billion francs in current spending and 521.7 billion francs in capital expenditure — a combined 1.155 trillion francs. That’s about 29% more than domestic revenue alone.
Add in the 238.7 billion francs in capital grants Burundi received during the quarter, though, and the picture changes: revenue plus grants came to roughly 1.133 trillion francs, just 21.8 billion francs short of expenditure. In other words, grants covered about 92% of the difference between what the government raised and what it spent.
All four figures are confirmed directly in INSBU’s Bulletin de Conjoncture du Burundi, Deuxième Trimestre 2026 (August 2026), where they are published as second-quarter totals — though see the note near the end of this piece on a quarter-labeling discrepancy worth flagging.
The numbers
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| Indicator | Billion BIF |
|---|---|
| Revenue excluding grants | 894.2 |
| Current expenditure | 633.0 |
| Capital expenditure | 521.7 |
| Total expenditure | 1,154.7 |
| Spending above domestic revenue | 260.5 |
| Capital grants | 238.7 |
| Revenue plus capital grants | 1,132.9 |
Source: INSBU, Bulletin de Conjoncture du Burundi, August 2026. Figures as published; see data note below on possible quarter mislabeling.
Why nearly half the spending was on investment, not operations
One detail worth pulling out: capital expenditure — the kind typically tied to infrastructure and other investment — made up about 45% of total spending in the quarter, with current (recurrent) spending accounting for the other 55%. That matters because it means the gap between revenue and spending wasn’t mainly the result of routine government operations running over budget; a large chunk of it reflects investment the IMF has specifically told Burundi not to cut indiscriminately. Fund staff said in May that essential services, targeted social spending and “high-quality public investment” should be protected even as the government improves spending efficiency, and later recommended preserving productive investment where projects are properly prioritized and financed.
That leaves Burundi threading a needle: it needs the infrastructure spending, but it also needs to shrink the deficit, raise more revenue, and ease its reliance on financing it can’t fully control.
The IMF has been warning revenue was falling short
The numbers aren’t a surprise to the IMF. Following an April–May mission, Fund staff said revenue collection through March 2026 had already fallen below government targets — driven mainly by weaker-than-expected non-tax revenue, including rental income and sales of goods and services.
The Fund projects Burundi’s overall fiscal deficit will narrow to 3.4% of GDP in the 2025–26 fiscal year, down from 5.5% the year before — real progress, staff said, though “further efforts will be needed” to hit the government’s medium-term targets. Public debt stood at 42% of GDP at the end of 2025, down sharply from 53% in 2024. The IMF considers that sustainable, but the Executive Board’s June statement still flagged Burundi as being at high risk of debt distress, citing “revenue shortfalls, weak investment execution, arrears, and high domestic financing needs” as ongoing risks.
A financing shift with its own trade-offs
For years, Burundi plugged budget gaps with direct advances from its central bank — a practice that fed money-supply growth and inflation. That has changed: the IMF said in May that the government had not drawn any new central bank advances so far this fiscal year, a shift it linked to the sharp drop in inflation, which fell from about 45.5% in April 2025 to 10.8% by March 2026.
But shifting toward market-based financing — selling domestic bonds instead of tapping the central bank — creates a different problem: government borrowing competes with private businesses for credit in Burundi’s banking system. Private-sector credit has already fallen from roughly 41% of GDP in 2023–24 to about 35% in 2025, a trend that matters directly to any business trying to finance investment or working capital.
The World Bank sees the same pressure
The World Bank’s own assessment lines up with the IMF’s. It puts Burundi’s fiscal deficit at 5.2% of GDP in 2025, down from 6.3% in 2024, helped by stronger revenue collection and the effect of high inflation on nominal tax receipts. Still, the Bank cautions that “dependence on domestic financing remains elevated.”
The Bank also credits government spending as a key driver of growth last year: real GDP expanded by about 4% in 2025, with infrastructure investment and higher recurrent expenditure feeding through to stronger private-sector activity. That’s the flip side of the financing dilemma — cut spending too hard, and you risk the growth engine; keep spending well above what you raise domestically, and you need grants, borrowing, or other financing to make up the difference indefinitely.
The tax base is the real story
Underlying all of this is a narrower question: how much of its own money is Burundi actually raising? The IMF estimates tax exemptions alone have cost the government the equivalent of 1.5% to 3% of GDP a year in recent years — money that, recovered, would go a long way toward closing the gap seen in these numbers. The Fund has recommended reviewing those exemptions, expanding electronic VAT invoicing, broadening the tax base, and continuing the rollout of the Burundi Revenue Authority’s e-KORI digital revenue system.
Framed against this data, that recommendation carries some weight: without capital grants, government spending during the period ran nearly 30% ahead of domestic revenue. For every 100 francs Burundi raised at home, it reported spending about 129.
A note on the data
One caveat worth flagging: INSBU’s bulletin labels these four figures as second-quarter (April–June) 2026 totals. But the bulletin’s own detailed monthly tables only run through March 2026, and summing just the January–March monthly figures from those tables produces totals that match the “Q2” numbers almost exactly (894.19bn, 238.69bn, 633.01bn, and 521.69bn, against headline figures of 894.2bn, 238.7bn, 633.0bn, and 521.7bn). That suggests the figures cited throughout this piece may actually reflect the first quarter rather than the second — most likely a labeling error in INSBU’s production process rather than any deliberate alteration of the underlying data. Worth a query to INSBU before these particular figures are cited elsewhere as Q2 activity. The IMF and World Bank analysis in this piece is drawn independently and isn’t affected by the discrepancy.
The bottom line
Burundi’s fiscal trajectory is genuinely improving on the metrics that matter most to lenders: the deficit is narrowing, debt is falling as a share of GDP, inflation has come down sharply, and the government has largely stopped leaning on the central bank to cover its bills. But this gap between what the government spent and what it raised domestically is a reminder of what that improvement still rests on — grants that aren’t guaranteed indefinitely, and a domestic revenue base that both the IMF and World Bank agree needs to grow considerably before Burundi can finance its own investment ambitions without outside help.
Sources: INSBU, “Bulletin de Conjoncture du Burundi, Deuxième Trimestre 2026” (August 2026); IMF, “Staff Completes 2026 Article IV Mission to Burundi” (May 18, 2026) and “Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Burundi” (June 17, 2026); World Bank, Burundi country overview.
