Burundi’s economy could expand to nearly $10 billion by 2031 as growth in agriculture, mining and electricity generation helps sustain one of the country’s strongest economic recoveries in years, according to the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF said Burundi’s gross domestic product is projected to rise from an estimated $6.8 billion in 2025 to about $9.7 billion by 2031, while economic growth is expected to average about 4.3% annually over the period.
The forecast comes after a year in which Burundi’s economy grew 4.2%, supported by stronger exports of coffee and gold and a sharp decline in inflation.
The IMF Executive Board, which concluded its latest Article IV consultation with Burundi this week, said the outlook remains “broadly positive” despite risks from regional instability and global economic uncertainty.
“Reforms in agriculture, mining and electricity sectors will play a critical role,” IMF directors said in their assessment.
The Fund expects electrification projects, increased agricultural production and mining investment to become key drivers of growth over the next five years. Foreign direct investment linked to power generation is also expected to support the country’s external accounts and help rebuild foreign exchange reserves.
Burundi’s economy has shown signs of stabilization after years of pressure from high inflation, foreign-currency shortages and fiscal imbalances.
Annual inflation fell from more than 45% in April 2025 to 8.6% in April 2026, according to IMF data. Public debt also declined significantly, dropping from 53.3% of GDP in 2024 to 41.6% in 2025.
The IMF attributed part of the improvement to higher export earnings from coffee and gold. According to IMF staff estimates, gold exports increased substantially in 2025, with export volumes rising from about 400 kilograms in 2024 to roughly 1.2 metric tons last year. (IMF)
Despite the optimistic growth outlook, the IMF cautioned that gains may not immediately translate into substantial improvements in living standards.
The country’s population is projected to increase from about 14.5 million people in 2025 to more than 17 million by 2031, while nominal GDP per capita is forecast to reach only about $567 by the end of the decade. (IMF)
The Fund also warned that Burundi remains vulnerable to external shocks, including swings in commodity prices and higher fuel and fertilizer costs.
Nevertheless, IMF directors said continued fiscal discipline, monetary tightening and structural reforms could place the country on a more sustainable growth path.
