Global commodity prices are expected to fall to their lowest level in six years in 2026, a trend that could ease inflation in Africa but threaten export revenues for economies like Burundi, the World Bank said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook.
The Bank projects that prices will decline by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, marking the fourth consecutive annual fall. The drop is linked to weak global growth, an expanding oil surplus, and policy uncertainty in major economies.
“Commodity markets are helping to stabilize the global economy,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank’s chief economist and senior vice president for development economics. “Falling energy prices have contributed to the decline in global consumer-price inflation. But this respite will not last.”
The World Bank says the global oil glut has expanded by 65% above its 2020 peak. Brent crude oil is expected to average $60 per barrel in 2026, down from $68 this year. The decline is driven by slower energy demand, growing electric vehicle use, and stagnant oil consumption in China.
For Africa, where many nations import fuel, the fall in oil prices could help reduce inflation and transport costs. However, oil exporters such as Nigeria and Angola may face reduced budget revenues.
Food prices are forecast to fall 6.1% this year and 0.3% in 2026, providing some relief for consumers in developing countries. In Burundi, where households spend more than half their income on food, lower rice and wheat prices could ease inflation.
But fertilizer costs are projected to surge 21% in 2025 before easing slightly next year, raising concerns for Burundian farmers who already face high input costs and limited access to credit. Coffee prices crucial to Burundi’s export earnings are also expected to decline in 2026 as global supplies recover.
While energy and food prices fall, gold and silver prices are soaring amid global uncertainty. Gold is expected to rise 42% in 2025 and another 5% next year, nearing double its pre-pandemic average.
Burundi’s economy, which relies on coffee and tea for over 70% of export income, remains vulnerable to commodity shocks. Lower oil prices may ease inflation and transport costs, but falling coffee prices could strain export earnings and government revenues.
The Bank urged African governments to use the current price window to strengthen fiscal discipline, reform fuel subsidies, and invest in technology and infrastructure to build long-term resilience.
